非投资建议 · 仅聚合公开内容与公开市场数据 · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Serenity
Serenity
@aleabitoreddit · 2026/6/6 08:37:22
好吧...只是关于$XFAB的一些周末淋浴时的想法。 我仍然觉得它可能成为下一个$TSEM,只是早期阶段,市值14亿美元? 它们有点跨越了当前世代($TSEM正在从中获得销量),为争夺2027年下半年CPO规模扩产的转折点($ASX文档提到Xfab(即photonixFAB)专注于CPO) 通过构建一些用于激光器及其他东西(如TFLN)的黑科技MTP(转移印刷)架构。 基本上是下一代集成IP,它们在良率上确实还落后。 但$NVDA正在评估其用于收发器/交换机,看是否能实现量产。而$NOK负责制定这些的规格/组装。(顺便提一下,英伟达也投资了诺基亚的这些交换机/网络)。 如果它们的MTP供应链能运作...(例如,Smartphotonics提供激光器,欧洲玩家负责组装)。 那基本上就会像英伟达与$TSEM签订长期协议一样,随着$NVDA实现量产? 下行风险? 已经低于重置账面价值,当然还能更低,但通常到一定程度。 也许未来几个月从芯片法案2中获得更多补贴。如果进展不顺利,还有SiC(同比增长152%,SiC晶圆出货量同比增长195%)/GaN功率半导体的上行空间。 欧洲人/大型语言模型会说“评估并不意味着未来合同!” 但这次有点不同,因为欧盟在背后支持这一努力,以及$XFAB的主权光子供应链。 这不是典型的公司加超大规模评估,因为$NVDA想对欧洲监管机构示好。如果英伟达只留在美国/台湾/中国,他们可能会不满。 所以如果它们能让这个MTP黑科技实现大规模生产,几乎可以肯定英伟达/诺基亚会在这个小小的$14亿硅光子代工厂上实现量产,或者至少给他们一些小合同做做样子。 关于时间线,可能只是提前几个月,因为量产在2027年下半年/2028年上半年(正好与CPO规模化时间线一致)... 或者就是因为它们给项目起了个蠢名字比如photonixfab? 比如叫XFAB Photonics会更好?这样机构/筛选器在寻找CPO硅光子代工玩家时就能联系起来? 汽车业务中期也应走出低迷,自动驾驶加速(台积电董事长昨天评论说AI汽车是台积电除机器人外的增长向量)。所以它们的主营业务中期也会提速。 显然市场/欧洲人想要“英伟达签署20亿美元以上合同,XFab 2027年量产!” 但到那时它将成为90亿美元以上的公司,你会错过所有上涨空间。尤其是每个分析师/机构都对这类公司的销量预期视而不见.... 通常我不会投资处于评估阶段的公司,但这似乎被欧盟主权+政府支持大大降低了风险,而且有英伟达和诺基亚在,只要IP能工作就能带来销量。 我认为市场可能忽略了这里的一些东西... 作为欧洲的CPO敞口,其长期上行潜力几乎被赋予了零价值。
原文 · EN
Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
原帖非投资建议
AI 分析
整体看多置信度 70%openai-compatible:deepseek-v4-pro
作者认为$XFAB可能成为下一个$TSEM,目前市值14亿美元被低估。XFAB的下一代光子学IP(MTP架构、TFLN)瞄准2027年下半年CPO规模化,并有$NVDA可能的量产和欧盟主权支持。尽管存在良率风险和评估阶段,但不对称风险/回报显得有吸引力。
涉及标的5
看多$XFAB
被认为可能成为下一个TSEM,拥有下一代光子学IP和潜在的NVDA量产;目前低于重置账面价值且有欧盟支持。无外部数据验证。
中性$TSEM
作为XFAB潜在轨迹的参考被提及;对TSEM自身前景无直接意见。
中性$ASX
被引用为记录XFAB专注于CPO的文档来源;对ASX无直接立场。
中性$NVDA
正在评估XFAB用于未来的收发器/交换机;被视为XFAB的潜在催化剂,而非对NVDA的评论。
中性$NOK
诺基亚设定NVDA投资的交换机的规格/组装;在潜在XFAB量产中发挥作用,对NOK无直接立场。
关键要点
  • XFAB跨越当前一代硅光子学,瞄准2027-2028年的CPO转折点
  • NVDA和NOK正在评估XFAB用于收发器/交换机的技术
  • 欧盟主权光子供应链倡议降低了项目风险
  • 核心业务(SiC/GaN功率半导体)提供了额外的上行空间
  • 市场可能低估了XFAB的CPO敞口
对公开帖子与公开市场数据的客观摘要,非投资建议;数据可能延迟。